NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM HAW
Points 79.0 72.9
Total Points   151.9
Points From 2-Pointers 43.0 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 21.9
Points From Free Throws 15.2 18.2
Shooting SAM HAW
Field Goals Made 28.4 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 51.4
Field Goal % 49.4% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 21.5 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 29.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 15.2 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 25.1
Free Throw % 70.7% 72.5%
Ball Control SAM HAW
Rebounds 30.5 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 8.2
Turnovers 10.4 15.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.5
Steals 7.8 4.5
Fouls 18.8 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM HAW
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 67.0
% of Possessions with SAM HAW
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 35.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 26.2%
Player Fouled 24.4% 25.5%
Turnover 14.1% 20.3%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM HAW
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 26.1%