NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring YALE UK
Points 72.4 85.0
Total Points   157.4
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 41.5
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 29.2
Points From Free Throws 13.3 14.4
Shooting YALE UK
Field Goals Made 25.5 30.5
Field Goals Attempted 63.0 61.1
Field Goal % 40.5% 49.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 41.6%
Free Throws Made 13.3 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 18.4
Free Throw % 69.8% 78.2%
Ball Control YALE UK
Rebounds 34.4 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 30.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 7.6
Turnovers 9.5 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 6.9
Steals 5.3 6.1
Fouls 14.7 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats YALE UK
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 73.1 72.1
% of Possessions with YALE UK
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 28.5%
Player Fouled 20.5% 20.0%
Turnover 13.0% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken YALE UK
Shot Blocked 11.4% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 23.2%