NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES NEV
Points 61.7 76.4
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 29.8 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 21.9
Points From Free Throws 12.0 15.5
Shooting FRES NEV
Field Goals Made 21.5 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 52.6 53.6
Field Goal % 41.0% 50.0%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 56.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 12.0 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 21.8
Free Throw % 69.6% 71.2%
Ball Control FRES NEV
Rebounds 28.9 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 8.8
Turnovers 11.5 8.7
Blocked Shots 1.6 4.4
Steals 4.5 5.6
Fouls 17.7 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES NEV
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 62.7 67.1
% of Possessions with FRES NEV
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 24.6%
Player Fouled 22.4% 26.4%
Turnover 17.2% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES NEV
Shot Blocked 8.3% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 28.9%