NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USF TLSA
Points 75.9 67.4
Total Points   143.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 31.2
Points From 3-Pointers 27.2 19.2
Points From Free Throws 17.5 17.0
Shooting USF TLSA
Field Goals Made 24.7 22.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 53.3
Field Goal % 43.4% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 31.6 31.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 29.6%
Free Throws Made 17.5 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 23.1
Free Throw % 72.6% 73.6%
Ball Control USF TLSA
Rebounds 36.6 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 7.6
Turnovers 10.3 12.7
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.2
Steals 6.8 6.1
Fouls 16.7 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: S Florida

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USF TLSA
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 67.6
% of Possessions with USF TLSA
2 Point Attempt 38.1% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 26.7%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.9%
Turnover 14.2% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken USF TLSA
Shot Blocked 4.2% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 21.8%