NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUFF WKU
Points 69.5 82.8
Total Points   152.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 47.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 21.2
Points From Free Throws 11.8 13.8
Shooting BUFF WKU
Field Goals Made 24.9 30.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 66.9
Field Goal % 41.3% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 23.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 46.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 27.5 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 28.7% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 11.8 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 19.1
Free Throw % 71.6% 72.7%
Ball Control BUFF WKU
Rebounds 34.6 41.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 11.7
Turnovers 14.0 10.5
Blocked Shots 5.5 3.0
Steals 5.6 8.1
Fouls 14.0 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: W Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUFF WKU
Total Possessions 76.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 77.9
% of Possessions with BUFF WKU
2 Point Attempt 38.3% 51.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.0% 22.3%
Player Fouled 17.9% 18.3%
Turnover 18.3% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUFF WKU
Shot Blocked 4.6% 9.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 30.6%