NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUFF NIU
Points 70.9 75.8
Total Points   146.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 23.2
Points From Free Throws 12.9 14.2
Shooting BUFF NIU
Field Goals Made 25.2 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 60.9
Field Goal % 41.3% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 12.9 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 21.1
Free Throw % 71.6% 67.4%
Ball Control BUFF NIU
Rebounds 36.1 39.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 11.6
Turnovers 10.8 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.3
Steals 5.9 4.8
Fouls 15.3 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUFF NIU
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 73.8
% of Possessions with BUFF NIU
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 26.1%
Player Fouled 18.0% 21.1%
Turnover 14.8% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUFF NIU
Shot Blocked 7.2% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 30.7%