NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USF UCF
Points 67.3 70.6
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 24.2 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.6 19.6
Points From Free Throws 18.5 16.3
Shooting USF UCF
Field Goals Made 20.3 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 57.5
Field Goal % 39.2% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 12.1 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 28.7 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 42.1% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 18.5 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.5 23.7
Free Throw % 72.6% 68.6%
Ball Control USF UCF
Rebounds 32.8 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 12.8
Turnovers 11.8 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.5
Steals 5.7 7.1
Fouls 16.0 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: S Florida

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USF UCF
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 72.7
% of Possessions with USF UCF
2 Point Attempt 35.8% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 24.1%
Player Fouled 25.9% 22.6%
Turnover 16.6% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken USF UCF
Shot Blocked 7.8% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 33.8%