NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USF SMU
Points 73.1 73.7
Total Points   146.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 38.8
Points From 3-Pointers 25.8 21.0
Points From Free Throws 15.8 13.9
Shooting USF SMU
Field Goals Made 24.3 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 63.2
Field Goal % 42.9% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 41.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 15.8 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 20.3
Free Throw % 72.6% 68.6%
Ball Control USF SMU
Rebounds 34.6 41.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 15.1
Turnovers 10.7 10.0
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.2
Steals 6.1 6.8
Fouls 13.4 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: S Florida

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USF SMU
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 75.9
% of Possessions with USF SMU
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 24.7%
Player Fouled 23.3% 19.0%
Turnover 15.1% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken USF SMU
Shot Blocked 6.8% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 37.7%