NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUFF TOL
Points 72.6 84.2
Total Points   156.8
Points From 2-Pointers 42.8 48.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 20.0
Points From Free Throws 9.2 16.0
Shooting BUFF TOL
Field Goals Made 28.3 30.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 63.3
Field Goal % 47.6% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 21.4 24.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.9 46.1
2 Point Shooting % 59.7% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 17.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 9.2 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 12.8 21.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 74.2%
Ball Control BUFF TOL
Rebounds 32.5 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 10.8
Turnovers 13.5 8.6
Blocked Shots 5.6 1.9
Steals 5.2 7.4
Fouls 14.8 11.6

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUFF TOL
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 75.4
% of Possessions with BUFF TOL
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 53.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 19.9%
Player Fouled 15.8% 20.2%
Turnover 18.5% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUFF TOL
Shot Blocked 3.1% 9.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 30.8%