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Louisville at Duke
Sat Feb 27, 2021
6:00pm ET
Durham, NC
Louisville at Duke: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Duke by 5, Total Points: 140.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | LOU | adv | DUKE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 13-18-1 | 21-14-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 9-11-1 | 11-10-1 | |
| Streak | W1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 1-4-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 3-7-0 | 6-4-0 | |
| Home | 5-12-1 | 11-7-0 | |
| Away | 8-6-0 | 10-7-1 |
Louisville Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Maryland BC | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | Chattanooga | -4.0 | L by 10 | -14.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | Coppin St | -17.5 | W by 20 | +2.5 |
| 11/19 | Neutral | Texas | +17.5 | L by 1 | +16.5 |
| 11/20 | Neutral | Indiana | +8.5 | L by 8 | +0.5 |
| 11/26 | Home | N Mex State | -8.5 | W by 6 | -2.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Bellarmine | -5.5 | W by 5 | -0.5 |
| 12/03 | Away | VA Tech | +14.0 | L by 7 | +7.0 |
| 12/09 | Away | DePaul | +2.0 | L by 7 | -5.0 |
| 12/13 | Home | Arkansas St | -3.5 | L by 12 | -15.5 |
| 12/17 | Home | Pepperdine | -1.0 | W by 22 | +21.0 |
| 12/21 | Home | Kentucky | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | Virginia | +15.5 | L by 24 | -8.5 |
| 01/06 | Home | Pittsburgh | +8.5 | L by 13 | -4.5 |
| 01/10 | Away | Miami | +16.5 | W by 9 | +25.5 |
| 01/13 | Home | NC State | +7.5 | L by 6 | +1.5 |
| 01/17 | Away | N Carolina | +21.0 | L by 16 | +5.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Wake Forest | +16.0 | L by 25 | -9.0 |
| 01/23 | Home | Duke | +14.0 | L by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Virginia | +9.0 | L by 17 | -8.0 |
| 01/30 | Away | Clemson | +16.0 | L by 6 | +10.0 |
| 02/03 | Home | Florida St | +5.5 | W by 9 | +14.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Syracuse | +8.5 | L by 2 | +6.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | GA Tech | -1.0 | W by 12 | +11.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Boston Col | +9.5 | L by 12 | -2.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Pittsburgh | +12.5 | L by 27 | -14.5 |
| 02/21 | Home | Notre Dame | -3.0 | L by 22 | -25.0 |
| 02/28 | Away | Duke | +20.5 | L by 25 | -4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Syracuse | +5.0 | L by 6 | -1.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | VA Tech | +7.5 | L by 16 | -8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | Boston Col | +4.5 | L by 6 | -1.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | NC State | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
Duke Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Dartmouth | -28.0 | W by 38 | +10.0 |
| 11/10 | Home | Arizona | -5.0 | L by 5 | -10.0 |
| 11/14 | Neutral | Michigan St | -4.0 | W by 9 | +5.0 |
| 11/17 | Home | Bucknell | -34.5 | W by 30 | -4.5 |
| 11/21 | Home | La Salle | -25.5 | W by 29 | +3.5 |
| 11/24 | Home | S Indiana | -36.5 | W by 18 | -18.5 |
| 11/29 | Away | Arkansas | -4.5 | L by 5 | -9.5 |
| 12/02 | Away | GA Tech | -12.5 | L by 4 | -16.5 |
| 12/09 | Home | Charlotte | -16.5 | W by 24 | +7.5 |
| 12/12 | Home | Hofstra | -15.5 | W by 21 | +5.5 |
| 12/20 | Neutral | Baylor | -2.0 | W by 8 | +6.0 |
| 12/30 | Home | Queens | -28.0 | W by 37 | +9.0 |
| 01/02 | Home | Syracuse | -14.5 | W by 20 | +5.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | Notre Dame | -14.5 | W by 8 | -6.5 |
| 01/09 | Away | Pittsburgh | -5.0 | W by 22 | +17.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | GA Tech | -17.5 | W by 5 | -12.5 |
| 01/20 | Home | Pittsburgh | -12.5 | L by 4 | -16.5 |
| 01/23 | Away | Louisville | -14.0 | W by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Clemson | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 01/29 | Away | VA Tech | -3.5 | W by 10 | +6.5 |
| 02/03 | Away | N Carolina | +4.5 | L by 9 | -4.5 |
| 02/07 | Home | Notre Dame | -17.0 | W by 18 | +1.0 |
| 02/10 | Home | Boston Col | -12.5 | W by 15 | +2.5 |
| 02/12 | Home | Wake Forest | -7.0 | W by 8 | +1.0 |
| 02/17 | Away | Florida St | -6.0 | W by 9 | +3.0 |
| 02/21 | Away | Miami | -7.0 | W by 29 | +22.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Wake Forest | +3.0 | L by 4 | -1.0 |
| 02/28 | Home | Louisville | -20.5 | W by 25 | +4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Virginia | -10.0 | W by 25 | +15.0 |
| 03/04 | Away | NC State | -6.5 | W by 15 | +8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | N Carolina | -4.5 | L by 5 | -9.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | NC State | -11.0 | L by 5 | -16.0 |
| 03/22 | Neutral | Vermont | -12.5 | W by 17 | +4.5 |
| 03/24 | Neutral | James Mad | -6.0 | W by 38 | +32.0 |
| 03/29 | Neutral | Houston | +4.5 | W by 3 | +7.5 |
| 03/31 | Neutral | NC State | -7.0 | L by 12 | -19.0 |
| DUKE -5.0 | Open | -4.5 | High | -5.5 |
| Last | -5.5 | Low | -4.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2015-2016 NCAA Basketball season there have been 3176 games where the closing line favored the home team by 4 to 6 points. In these games:
- The team like Duke won the game 2176 times (68.5%).
- The team like Louisville won the game 1000 times (31.5%).
- The team like Duke did better against the spread, going 1611-1485-80 (52.0% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.1 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball season there have been 644 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 0.5 points less than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Louisville did better against the spread, going 318-299-27 (51.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.1 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -5.0 | -5.0 | -5.0 |
| Open | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| History | |||
| 02/27 05:59 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 05:55 PM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
| 02/27 05:20 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 05:15 PM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
| 02/27 03:53 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 03:34 PM | -- | -5.0 | -- |
| 02/27 03:02 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 02:08 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 01:34 PM | -- | -5.5 | -- |
| 02/27 01:17 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 01:05 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 12:55 PM | -- | -- | -5.5 |
| 02/27 12:26 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 12:05 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 11:14 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 10:29 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 09:44 AM | -- | -5.0 | -- |
| 02/27 09:35 AM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
| 02/27 09:35 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 08:47 AM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 07:56 AM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 04:23 AM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 02:56 AM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/26 11:55 PM | -- | -- | -5.5 |
| 02/26 10:32 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/26 10:04 PM | -- | -5.5 | -- |
| 02/26 09:54 PM | -- | -5.5 | -- |
| 02/26 09:04 PM | -- | -5.5 | -- |
| 02/26 08:34 PM | -- | -5.5 | -- |
| 02/26 06:44 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/26 06:14 PM | -- | -5.5 | -- |
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