NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU DUKE
Points 66.6 85.1
Total Points   151.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 40.8
Points From 3-Pointers 13.1 27.5
Points From Free Throws 14.2 16.8
Shooting LOU DUKE
Field Goals Made 24.0 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 56.0
Field Goal % 43.9% 52.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 60.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.4 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 15.3 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 41.4%
Free Throws Made 14.2 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 23.4
Free Throw % 74.2% 71.6%
Ball Control LOU DUKE
Rebounds 29.0 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 9.1
Turnovers 11.6 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.9
Steals 4.3 7.4
Fouls 15.0 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU DUKE
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 70.0
% of Possessions with LOU DUKE
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 19.2% 27.6%
Player Fouled 23.0% 21.4%
Turnover 16.6% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU DUKE
Shot Blocked 7.1% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 30.0%