NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAM MSST
Points 63.3 80.6
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 39.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 24.7
Points From Free Throws 11.8 16.2
Shooting LAM MSST
Field Goals Made 22.8 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 57.6
Field Goal % 39.1% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.4% 59.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 27.0% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 11.8 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 24.7
Free Throw % 72.1% 65.5%
Ball Control LAM MSST
Rebounds 30.3 42.0
Rebounds - Defensive 20.2 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 14.4
Turnovers 12.7 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.0
Steals 5.9 7.8
Fouls 16.4 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Lamar

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAM MSST
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 73.8
% of Possessions with LAM MSST
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 38.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 28.1%
Player Fouled 20.2% 22.9%
Turnover 17.8% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAM MSST
Shot Blocked 5.3% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 41.5%