NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BALL CMU
Points 69.1 67.5
Total Points   136.7
Points From 2-Pointers 29.7 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 19.1
Points From Free Throws 16.6 10.4
Shooting BALL CMU
Field Goals Made 22.5 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 60.8
Field Goal % 39.4% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.5 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 44.3% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 16.6 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 15.5
Free Throw % 77.8% 67.1%
Ball Control BALL CMU
Rebounds 37.7 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 10.6
Turnovers 10.0 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.1
Steals 4.2 5.5
Fouls 12.6 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Central Mich

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BALL CMU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 70.5
% of Possessions with BALL CMU
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 25.3%
Player Fouled 22.9% 18.1%
Turnover 14.4% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BALL CMU
Shot Blocked 6.8% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 27.8%