NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAM HOU
Points 53.2 84.0
Total Points   137.2
Points From 2-Pointers 23.3 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 16.2 27.4
Points From Free Throws 13.7 16.6
Shooting LAM HOU
Field Goals Made 17.1 29.1
Field Goals Attempted 52.0 62.9
Field Goal % 32.8% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 11.7 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 35.7% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 25.4
3 Point Shooting % 27.9% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 13.7 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 23.4
Free Throw % 72.1% 71.1%
Ball Control LAM HOU
Rebounds 31.1 44.0
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 17.0
Turnovers 15.0 7.6
Blocked Shots 2.0 5.3
Steals 3.9 9.0
Fouls 15.0 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAM HOU
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 63.9 78.0
% of Possessions with LAM HOU
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 29.4%
Player Fouled 22.8% 21.9%
Turnover 21.9% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 13.1% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAM HOU
Shot Blocked 8.6% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 45.0%