NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU WAKE
Points 67.7 83.9
Total Points   151.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 41.1
Points From 3-Pointers 14.8 25.3
Points From Free Throws 15.9 17.5
Shooting LOU WAKE
Field Goals Made 23.4 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 54.8
Field Goal % 42.8% 52.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.5% 61.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 16.6 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 15.9 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 22.1
Free Throw % 74.2% 79.2%
Ball Control LOU WAKE
Rebounds 29.5 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 6.6
Turnovers 11.9 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.2
Steals 4.9 6.8
Fouls 17.3 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU WAKE
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 68.1
% of Possessions with LOU WAKE
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.5% 27.0%
Player Fouled 22.7% 24.1%
Turnover 16.6% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU WAKE
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 23.1%