NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU BC
Points 69.6 80.9
Total Points   150.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.8 27.5
Points From Free Throws 15.0 13.3
Shooting LOU BC
Field Goals Made 24.5 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 57.9
Field Goal % 43.3% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 15.0 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 17.8
Free Throw % 74.2% 74.4%
Ball Control LOU BC
Rebounds 32.3 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 7.6
Turnovers 10.7 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.6
Steals 5.0 6.5
Fouls 14.6 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Boston Col

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU BC
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 68.7
% of Possessions with LOU BC
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 29.4%
Player Fouled 22.9% 20.7%
Turnover 15.2% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU BC
Shot Blocked 6.4% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 24.4%