NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BALL BGSU
Points 74.0 72.7
Total Points   146.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 18.0
Points From Free Throws 14.8 14.2
Shooting BALL BGSU
Field Goals Made 25.7 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 60.6
Field Goal % 46.1% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 41.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 40.0% 31.1%
Free Throws Made 14.8 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 19.6
Free Throw % 77.8% 72.7%
Ball Control BALL BGSU
Rebounds 33.4 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 10.7
Turnovers 11.0 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.8
Steals 4.4 6.2
Fouls 14.0 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Ball St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BALL BGSU
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 72.5
% of Possessions with BALL BGSU
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 23.1%
Player Fouled 22.8% 19.7%
Turnover 15.4% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken BALL BGSU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 28.9%