NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAM USM
Points 69.4 70.3
Total Points   139.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 21.0
Points From Free Throws 13.9 16.4
Shooting LAM USM
Field Goals Made 24.4 23.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 55.8
Field Goal % 39.8% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 41.3 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 43.0% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 13.9 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 23.2
Free Throw % 72.1% 70.5%
Ball Control LAM USM
Rebounds 37.5 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 11.0
Turnovers 10.8 12.4
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.1
Steals 7.3 6.2
Fouls 15.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: S Mississippi

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAM USM
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 70.6
% of Possessions with LAM USM
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 24.6%
Player Fouled 21.6% 21.6%
Turnover 15.1% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAM USM
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 30.7% 30.2%