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Louisville at Miami
Sat Jan 16, 2021
8:00pm ET
Coral Gables, FL
Louisville at Miami: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Louisville by 4.5, Total Points: 132
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | LOU | adv | MIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 13-18-1 | 14-16-2 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 9-11-1 | 7-12-2 | |
| Streak | W1 | L3 | |
| Last 5 | 1-4-0 | 1-4-0 | |
| Last 10 | 3-7-0 | 2-8-0 | |
| Home | 5-12-1 | 8-8-1 | |
| Away | 8-6-0 | 6-8-1 |
Louisville Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Maryland BC | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | Chattanooga | -4.0 | L by 10 | -14.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | Coppin St | -17.5 | W by 20 | +2.5 |
| 11/19 | Neutral | Texas | +17.5 | L by 1 | +16.5 |
| 11/20 | Neutral | Indiana | +8.5 | L by 8 | +0.5 |
| 11/26 | Home | N Mex State | -8.5 | W by 6 | -2.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Bellarmine | -5.5 | W by 5 | -0.5 |
| 12/03 | Away | VA Tech | +14.0 | L by 7 | +7.0 |
| 12/09 | Away | DePaul | +2.0 | L by 7 | -5.0 |
| 12/13 | Home | Arkansas St | -3.5 | L by 12 | -15.5 |
| 12/17 | Home | Pepperdine | -1.0 | W by 22 | +21.0 |
| 12/21 | Home | Kentucky | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | Virginia | +15.5 | L by 24 | -8.5 |
| 01/06 | Home | Pittsburgh | +8.5 | L by 13 | -4.5 |
| 01/10 | Away | Miami | +16.5 | W by 9 | +25.5 |
| 01/13 | Home | NC State | +7.5 | L by 6 | +1.5 |
| 01/17 | Away | N Carolina | +21.0 | L by 16 | +5.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Wake Forest | +16.0 | L by 25 | -9.0 |
| 01/23 | Home | Duke | +14.0 | L by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Virginia | +9.0 | L by 17 | -8.0 |
| 01/30 | Away | Clemson | +16.0 | L by 6 | +10.0 |
| 02/03 | Home | Florida St | +5.5 | W by 9 | +14.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Syracuse | +8.5 | L by 2 | +6.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | GA Tech | -1.0 | W by 12 | +11.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Boston Col | +9.5 | L by 12 | -2.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Pittsburgh | +12.5 | L by 27 | -14.5 |
| 02/21 | Home | Notre Dame | -3.0 | L by 22 | -25.0 |
| 02/28 | Away | Duke | +20.5 | L by 25 | -4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Syracuse | +5.0 | L by 6 | -1.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | VA Tech | +7.5 | L by 16 | -8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | Boston Col | +4.5 | L by 6 | -1.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | NC State | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
Miami Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | NJIT | -24.5 | W by 41 | +16.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | UCF | -9.5 | W by 16 | +6.5 |
| 11/13 | Home | Florida Intl | -23.0 | W by 6 | -17.0 |
| 11/17 | Neutral | Georgia | -7.5 | W by 11 | +3.5 |
| 11/19 | Neutral | Kansas St | -3.0 | W by 8 | +5.0 |
| 11/28 | Away | Kentucky | +6.0 | L by 22 | -16.0 |
| 12/02 | Home | Notre Dame | -14.5 | W by 13 | -1.5 |
| 12/06 | Home | LIU | -30.0 | W by 48 | +18.0 |
| 12/10 | Neutral | Colorado | -1.5 | L by 27 | -28.5 |
| 12/16 | Home | La Salle | -15.5 | W by 7 | -8.5 |
| 12/21 | Home | Stonehill | -29.5 | W by 38 | +8.5 |
| 12/29 | Home | N Florida | -19.5 | W by 40 | +20.5 |
| 01/03 | Home | Clemson | +1.5 | W by 13 | +14.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | Wake Forest | +4.0 | L by 4 | 0.0 |
| 01/10 | Home | Louisville | -16.5 | L by 9 | -25.5 |
| 01/13 | Away | VA Tech | +2.0 | W by 4 | +6.0 |
| 01/17 | Home | Florida St | -5.5 | L by 9 | -14.5 |
| 01/20 | Away | Syracuse | +4.0 | L by 3 | +1.0 |
| 01/24 | Away | Notre Dame | -4.5 | W by 12 | +7.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Pittsburgh | -4.0 | W by 4 | 0.0 |
| 01/30 | Away | NC State | +4.5 | L by 6 | -1.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | VA Tech | -4.0 | W by 8 | +4.0 |
| 02/05 | Away | Virginia | +5.5 | L by 22 | -16.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | N Carolina | +4.0 | L by 3 | +1.0 |
| 02/14 | Away | Clemson | +7.0 | L by 17 | -10.0 |
| 02/17 | Away | Boston Col | +1.0 | L by 8 | -7.0 |
| 02/21 | Home | Duke | +7.0 | L by 29 | -22.0 |
| 02/24 | Home | GA Tech | -9.0 | L by 4 | -13.0 |
| 02/26 | Away | N Carolina | +14.0 | L by 4 | +10.0 |
| 03/06 | Home | Boston Col | -5.5 | L by 10 | -15.5 |
| 03/09 | Away | Florida St | +4.5 | L by 8 | -3.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | Boston Col | -3.0 | L by 16 | -19.0 |
| LOU -4.5 | Open | -3.5 | High | -4.5 |
| Last | -3.0 | Low | -3.0 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2015-2016 NCAA Basketball season there have been 1503 games where the closing line favored the away team by 3.5 to 5.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Louisville won the game 975 times (64.9%).
- The team like Miami won the game 528 times (35.1%).
- The team like Louisville did better against the spread, going 745-738-20 (50.2% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.3 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball season there have been 51 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 2 points more than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Louisville did better against the spread, going 31-20 (60.8% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 2.7 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 |
| Open | -4.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 |
| History | |||
| 01/16 08:04 PM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 01/16 07:59 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 07:55 PM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 01/16 07:20 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 06:29 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 04:32 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 02:32 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 01:11 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 12:25 PM | -- | -- | -3.0 |
| 01/16 12:23 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 11:47 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 10:45 AM | -- | -- | -3.5 |
| 01/16 10:35 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 10:05 AM | -- | -- | -3.5 |
| 01/16 09:23 AM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 09:20 AM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 09:14 AM | -- | -3.5 | -- |
| 01/16 07:55 AM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 01/16 06:29 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/16 12:49 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/15 10:34 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 01/15 10:05 PM | -- | -- | -3.5 |
| 01/15 09:14 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/15 06:44 PM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 01/15 06:32 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
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