NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BALL NIU
Points 75.4 72.2
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.3 22.4
Points From Free Throws 19.6 13.3
Shooting BALL NIU
Field Goals Made 23.8 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 57.9
Field Goal % 42.8% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.3% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 38.8% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 19.6 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 19.8
Free Throw % 77.8% 67.4%
Ball Control BALL NIU
Rebounds 35.1 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 9.8
Turnovers 10.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.7
Steals 5.0 4.6
Fouls 15.4 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Ball St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BALL NIU
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 70.3
% of Possessions with BALL NIU
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 26.1%
Player Fouled 24.6% 21.6%
Turnover 14.0% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BALL NIU
Shot Blocked 8.2% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 27.2%