NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BALL NKU
Points 72.5 74.8
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 41.6
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 19.8
Points From Free Throws 15.5 13.4
Shooting BALL NKU
Field Goals Made 24.5 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 60.4
Field Goal % 45.3% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 30.5 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.7 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 15.5 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 18.4
Free Throw % 77.8% 73.1%
Ball Control BALL NKU
Rebounds 34.5 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 9.6
Turnovers 13.6 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.3
Steals 4.5 8.3
Fouls 14.0 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: N Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BALL NKU
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.9 71.5
% of Possessions with BALL NKU
2 Point Attempt 37.4% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 23.5%
Player Fouled 23.0% 19.5%
Turnover 18.9% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 11.5% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BALL NKU
Shot Blocked 3.8% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 27.0%