NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU PITT
Points 65.3 82.1
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.5 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 14.4 31.7
Points From Free Throws 15.3 15.1
Shooting LOU PITT
Field Goals Made 22.6 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 58.6
Field Goal % 42.2% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 27.4% 39.2%
Free Throws Made 15.3 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 20.6
Free Throw % 74.2% 73.0%
Ball Control LOU PITT
Rebounds 31.5 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 9.2
Turnovers 11.6 7.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.9
Steals 3.8 7.1
Fouls 15.4 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU PITT
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 71.1
% of Possessions with LOU PITT
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 33.7%
Player Fouled 22.9% 22.2%
Turnover 16.6% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU PITT
Shot Blocked 8.5% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 27.6%