NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BALL TOL
Points 76.1 80.8
Total Points   156.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 46.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 19.3
Points From Free Throws 13.9 15.0
Shooting BALL TOL
Field Goals Made 27.3 29.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 60.2
Field Goal % 49.1% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 43.7
2 Point Shooting % 56.6% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 16.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 38.9%
Free Throws Made 13.9 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 20.2
Free Throw % 77.8% 74.2%
Ball Control BALL TOL
Rebounds 31.7 32.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 9.1
Turnovers 12.6 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.1
Steals 4.4 7.1
Fouls 14.9 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BALL TOL
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.9 72.1
% of Possessions with BALL TOL
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 52.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 20.0%
Player Fouled 21.7% 20.7%
Turnover 17.4% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BALL TOL
Shot Blocked 3.5% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 27.3%