NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU FSU
Points 71.2 80.2
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 43.6
Points From 3-Pointers 15.4 18.3
Points From Free Throws 20.6 18.3
Shooting LOU FSU
Field Goals Made 22.8 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.2 55.2
Field Goal % 43.6% 50.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 58.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 16.1 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 20.6 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 27.7 25.9
Free Throw % 74.2% 70.5%
Ball Control LOU FSU
Rebounds 33.7 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.3
Turnovers 14.9 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.6
Steals 4.7 9.9
Fouls 17.9 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Florida St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU FSU
Total Possessions 74.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 71.2
% of Possessions with LOU FSU
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 21.5%
Player Fouled 26.2% 24.2%
Turnover 20.1% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 13.4% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU FSU
Shot Blocked 8.5% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.5% 26.1%