NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU MSU
Points 62.7 79.8
Total Points   142.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 42.9
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 22.3
Points From Free Throws 14.8 14.5
Shooting LOU MSU
Field Goals Made 21.2 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.8 56.9
Field Goal % 40.2% 50.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 14.8 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 20.0
Free Throw % 74.2% 72.5%
Ball Control LOU MSU
Rebounds 29.9 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 9.0
Turnovers 12.6 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.2
Steals 4.4 7.8
Fouls 15.7 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU MSU
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 69.2
% of Possessions with LOU MSU
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 23.8%
Player Fouled 23.4% 22.5%
Turnover 18.1% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 11.2% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU MSU
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 28.9%