NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU NCST
Points 67.1 82.1
Total Points   149.2
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 42.9
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 22.1
Points From Free Throws 15.9 17.1
Shooting LOU NCST
Field Goals Made 23.0 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 57.3
Field Goal % 41.8% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 56.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 15.9 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 23.5
Free Throw % 74.2% 72.6%
Ball Control LOU NCST
Rebounds 32.5 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 8.4
Turnovers 12.5 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.1
Steals 4.0 8.1
Fouls 15.7 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU NCST
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 71.5
% of Possessions with LOU NCST
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 20.8% 24.0%
Player Fouled 22.4% 21.8%
Turnover 17.4% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 11.3% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU NCST
Shot Blocked 7.2% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 26.0%