NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WCU MER
Points 74.2 67.3
Total Points   141.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 40.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 15.1
Points From Free Throws 14.0 11.8
Shooting WCU MER
Field Goals Made 26.6 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 60.3
Field Goal % 45.0% 41.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 46.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 43.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 14.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 14.0 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 17.4
Free Throw % 70.0% 67.9%
Ball Control WCU MER
Rebounds 40.3 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 8.9
Turnovers 9.0 7.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.2
Steals 3.5 4.7
Fouls 13.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: W Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WCU MER
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 70.7
% of Possessions with WCU MER
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 58.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 17.9%
Player Fouled 22.4% 19.5%
Turnover 12.9% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 5.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken WCU MER
Shot Blocked 5.3% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.8% 23.4%