NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVM DART
Points 70.4 56.2
Total Points   126.6
Points From 2-Pointers 29.0 27.3
Points From 3-Pointers 31.8 19.9
Points From Free Throws 9.7 8.9
Shooting UVM DART
Field Goals Made 25.1 20.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 53.4
Field Goal % 44.1% 38.0%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 13.7
2 Pointers Attempted 28.7 31.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 42.9%
3 Pointers Made 10.6 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 28.2 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 9.7 8.9
Free Throws Attempted 13.4 13.5
Free Throw % 71.9% 66.3%
Ball Control UVM DART
Rebounds 34.9 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 5.6 5.9
Turnovers 6.8 10.4
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.5
Steals 6.4 3.4
Fouls 12.8 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Dartmouth

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVM DART
Total Possessions 65.4
Effective Scoring Chances 64.2 61.0
% of Possessions with UVM DART
2 Point Attempt 39.6% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 38.9% 29.6%
Player Fouled 19.1% 19.6%
Turnover 10.4% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVM DART
Shot Blocked 6.8% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 16.7% 16.9%