NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WCU CIT
Points 77.0 67.4
Total Points   144.4
Points From 2-Pointers 42.8 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.1 14.2
Points From Free Throws 9.2 13.8
Shooting WCU CIT
Field Goals Made 29.7 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.7 56.1
Field Goal % 49.0% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 21.4 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 41.2
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 4.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 14.9
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 9.2 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 13.1 19.4
Free Throw % 70.0% 71.4%
Ball Control WCU CIT
Rebounds 36.2 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 7.1
Turnovers 8.7 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.2
Steals 3.8 4.0
Fouls 15.6 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WCU CIT
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 67.3
% of Possessions with WCU CIT
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 53.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 19.3%
Player Fouled 17.9% 22.7%
Turnover 12.6% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken WCU CIT
Shot Blocked 4.1% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 20.6%