NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVM UVA
Points 54.2 60.5
Total Points   114.7
Points From 2-Pointers 22.3 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 17.8
Points From Free Throws 8.8 8.4
Shooting UVM UVA
Field Goals Made 18.8 23.1
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 57.6
Field Goal % 35.3% 40.1%
2 Pointers Made 11.1 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 26.9 39.9
2 Point Shooting % 41.3% 43.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 26.5 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 8.8 8.4
Free Throws Attempted 12.2 13.6
Free Throw % 71.9% 62.1%
Ball Control UVM UVA
Rebounds 35.3 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 8.4
Turnovers 9.7 5.9
Blocked Shots 3.5 6.4
Steals 3.8 5.7
Fouls 10.9 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVM UVA
Total Possessions 62.6
Effective Scoring Chances 59.6 65.2
% of Possessions with UVM UVA
2 Point Attempt 37.5% 55.0%
3 Point Attempt 36.9% 24.5%
Player Fouled 18.4% 17.3%
Turnover 15.4% 9.4%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVM UVA
Shot Blocked 11.3% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 18.7% 22.7%