NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVM UNCW
Points 70.3 69.0
Total Points   139.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.7 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 26.5 20.2
Points From Free Throws 12.1 13.8
Shooting UVM UNCW
Field Goals Made 24.7 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.8 58.5
Field Goal % 45.9% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 30.0 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 12.1 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 17.8
Free Throw % 71.9% 77.5%
Ball Control UVM UNCW
Rebounds 33.2 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 9.7
Turnovers 8.8 6.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.6
Steals 3.3 4.7
Fouls 13.8 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Vermont

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVM UNCW
Total Possessions 66.0
Effective Scoring Chances 63.8 69.0
% of Possessions with UVM UNCW
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 28.8%
Player Fouled 22.4% 20.9%
Turnover 13.4% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 5.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVM UNCW
Shot Blocked 4.6% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 26.7%