NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WCU UNCG
Points 72.5 71.2
Total Points   143.6
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.5 24.8
Points From Free Throws 13.1 12.1
Shooting WCU UNCG
Field Goals Made 25.2 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 59.6
Field Goal % 43.7% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 44.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 38.5%
Free Throws Made 13.1 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 16.6
Free Throw % 70.0% 72.8%
Ball Control WCU UNCG
Rebounds 37.9 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 9.0
Turnovers 9.3 7.8
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.5
Steals 3.3 5.2
Fouls 14.9 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: W Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WCU UNCG
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 69.8
% of Possessions with WCU UNCG
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 27.4%
Player Fouled 21.6% 21.8%
Turnover 13.6% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken WCU UNCG
Shot Blocked 4.3% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 24.4%