NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVM MW
Points 65.9 59.4
Total Points   125.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 28.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 19.8
Points From Free Throws 12.5 11.3
Shooting UVM MW
Field Goals Made 23.3 20.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 54.3
Field Goal % 43.3% 38.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 44.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 12.5 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 15.1
Free Throw % 71.9% 74.8%
Ball Control UVM MW
Rebounds 38.4 29.7
Rebounds - Defensive 29.7 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 5.5
Turnovers 11.9 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.9
Steals 5.7 7.3
Fouls 13.2 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVM MW
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 62.8
% of Possessions with UVM MW
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 30.0%
Player Fouled 21.3% 19.6%
Turnover 17.6% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVM MW
Shot Blocked 7.3% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 15.7%