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Virginia at Louisville
Sat Mar 6, 2021
4:00pm ET
Louisville, KY
Virginia at Louisville: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Virginia by 1.5, Total Points: 122
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | UVA | adv | LOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 17-16-1 | 13-18-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 11-10-1 | 9-11-1 | |
| Streak | L2 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3-0 | 1-4-0 | |
| Last 10 | 3-7-0 | 3-7-0 | |
| Home | 10-6-1 | 5-12-1 | |
| Away | 7-10-0 | 8-6-0 |
Virginia Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Tarleton St | -17.0 | W by 30 | +13.0 |
| 11/10 | Neutral | Florida | +1.0 | W by 3 | +4.0 |
| 11/14 | Home | NC A&T | -30.5 | W by 29 | -1.5 |
| 11/16 | Home | TX Southern | -22.5 | W by 29 | +6.5 |
| 11/20 | Neutral | Wisconsin | -3.5 | L by 24 | -27.5 |
| 11/22 | Neutral | W Virginia | -9.5 | W by 2 | -7.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Texas A&M | -3.0 | W by 12 | +9.0 |
| 12/02 | Home | Syracuse | -10.5 | W by 22 | +11.5 |
| 12/05 | Home | NC Central | -24.5 | W by 30 | +5.5 |
| 12/16 | Home | Northeastrn | -16.0 | W by 2 | -14.0 |
| 12/19 | Away | Memphis | +3.5 | L by 23 | -19.5 |
| 12/27 | Home | Morgan St | -26.5 | W by 35 | +8.5 |
| 12/30 | Away | Notre Dame | -9.5 | L by 22 | -31.5 |
| 01/03 | Home | Louisville | -15.5 | W by 24 | +8.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | NC State | +1.0 | L by 16 | -15.0 |
| 01/13 | Away | Wake Forest | +6.0 | L by 19 | -13.0 |
| 01/17 | Home | VA Tech | -4.5 | W by 8 | +3.5 |
| 01/20 | Away | GA Tech | -2.5 | W by 9 | +6.5 |
| 01/24 | Home | NC State | -6.0 | W by 6 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Away | Louisville | -9.0 | W by 17 | +8.0 |
| 01/31 | Home | Notre Dame | -13.5 | W by 12 | -1.5 |
| 02/03 | Away | Clemson | +4.5 | W by 1 | +5.5 |
| 02/05 | Home | Miami | -5.5 | W by 22 | +16.5 |
| 02/10 | Away | Florida St | -1.5 | W by 4 | +2.5 |
| 02/13 | Home | Pittsburgh | -6.5 | L by 11 | -17.5 |
| 02/17 | Home | Wake Forest | -2.5 | W by 2 | -0.5 |
| 02/19 | Away | VA Tech | +3.5 | L by 34 | -30.5 |
| 02/24 | Home | N Carolina | +2.5 | L by 10 | -7.5 |
| 02/28 | Away | Boston Col | -1.5 | W by 4 | +2.5 |
| 03/02 | Away | Duke | +10.0 | L by 25 | -15.0 |
| 03/09 | Home | GA Tech | -9.5 | W by 15 | +5.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Boston Col | -5.5 | W by 6 | +0.5 |
| 03/15 | Neutral | NC State | -2.5 | L by 8 | -10.5 |
| 03/19 | Neutral | Colorado St | +2.5 | L by 25 | -22.5 |
Louisville Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Maryland BC | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | Chattanooga | -4.0 | L by 10 | -14.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | Coppin St | -17.5 | W by 20 | +2.5 |
| 11/19 | Neutral | Texas | +17.5 | L by 1 | +16.5 |
| 11/20 | Neutral | Indiana | +8.5 | L by 8 | +0.5 |
| 11/26 | Home | N Mex State | -8.5 | W by 6 | -2.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Bellarmine | -5.5 | W by 5 | -0.5 |
| 12/03 | Away | VA Tech | +14.0 | L by 7 | +7.0 |
| 12/09 | Away | DePaul | +2.0 | L by 7 | -5.0 |
| 12/13 | Home | Arkansas St | -3.5 | L by 12 | -15.5 |
| 12/17 | Home | Pepperdine | -1.0 | W by 22 | +21.0 |
| 12/21 | Home | Kentucky | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | Virginia | +15.5 | L by 24 | -8.5 |
| 01/06 | Home | Pittsburgh | +8.5 | L by 13 | -4.5 |
| 01/10 | Away | Miami | +16.5 | W by 9 | +25.5 |
| 01/13 | Home | NC State | +7.5 | L by 6 | +1.5 |
| 01/17 | Away | N Carolina | +21.0 | L by 16 | +5.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Wake Forest | +16.0 | L by 25 | -9.0 |
| 01/23 | Home | Duke | +14.0 | L by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Virginia | +9.0 | L by 17 | -8.0 |
| 01/30 | Away | Clemson | +16.0 | L by 6 | +10.0 |
| 02/03 | Home | Florida St | +5.5 | W by 9 | +14.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Syracuse | +8.5 | L by 2 | +6.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | GA Tech | -1.0 | W by 12 | +11.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Boston Col | +9.5 | L by 12 | -2.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Pittsburgh | +12.5 | L by 27 | -14.5 |
| 02/21 | Home | Notre Dame | -3.0 | L by 22 | -25.0 |
| 02/28 | Away | Duke | +20.5 | L by 25 | -4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Syracuse | +5.0 | L by 6 | -1.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | VA Tech | +7.5 | L by 16 | -8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | Boston Col | +4.5 | L by 6 | -1.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | NC State | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
| UVA -1.5 | Open | -1.5 | High | -2.0 |
| Last | -2.0 | Low | -1.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2015-2016 NCAA Basketball season there have been 1922 games where the closing line favored the away team by 0.5 to 2.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Virginia won the game 1044 times (54.3%).
- The team like Louisville won the game 878 times (45.7%).
- The team like Virginia did better against the spread, going 948-939-35 (50.2% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.8 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball season there have been 511 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 1 points less than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Virginia did better against the spread, going 259-250-2 (50.9% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -2.0 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Open | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 |
| History | |||
| 03/06 03:59 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 03:29 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 02:50 PM | -1.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 01:45 PM | -1.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 01:14 PM | -1.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 12:50 PM | -1.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 12:19 PM | -1.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 12:08 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 12:05 PM | -- | -- | -1.5 |
| 03/06 11:26 AM | -1.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 10:54 AM | -- | -1.5 | -- |
| 03/06 10:47 AM | -1.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 10:35 AM | -- | -- | -1.5 |
| 03/06 10:19 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 09:44 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 09:23 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 09:04 AM | -- | -2.0 | -- |
| 03/06 08:50 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 08:26 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 07:44 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 05:32 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 03:11 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/06 12:35 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/05 10:35 PM | -- | -- | -2.0 |
| 03/05 08:23 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
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