NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA LOU
Points 70.0 58.4
Total Points   128.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 31.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 14.1
Points From Free Throws 10.4 12.4
Shooting UVA LOU
Field Goals Made 26.2 20.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 53.1
Field Goal % 46.4% 38.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 4.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 26.6%
Free Throws Made 10.4 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 16.7
Free Throw % 62.1% 74.2%
Ball Control UVA LOU
Rebounds 33.3 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 8.7
Turnovers 7.5 12.1
Blocked Shots 5.7 2.6
Steals 7.7 4.1
Fouls 13.8 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA LOU
Total Possessions 66.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 62.8
% of Possessions with UVA LOU
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 22.9%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.9%
Turnover 11.4% 18.3%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 11.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA LOU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 10.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 25.4%