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Virginia at Louisville
Sat Jan 18, 2025
12:00pm ET
Louisville, KY
Virginia at Louisville: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Louisville by 15, Total Points: 129.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | UVA | adv | LOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 17-17-2 | 17-18-0 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 11-10-0 | 7-13-0 | |
| Streak | L2 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 2-3-0 | |
| Last 10 | 4-6-0 | 3-7-0 | |
| Home | 8-8-1 | 10-7-0 | |
| Away | 9-9-1 | 7-11-0 |
Virginia Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03 | Home | Rider | -26.5 | W by 34 | +7.5 |
| 11/07 | Home | NC Central | -34.0 | W by 19 | -15.0 |
| 11/11 | Home | Hampton | -24.0 | W by 38 | +14.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | Marshall | -20.5 | W by 26 | +5.5 |
| 11/21 | Neutral | Northwestern | -5.0 | W by 5 | 0.0 |
| 11/23 | Neutral | Butler | -7.0 | L by 7 | -14.0 |
| 11/28 | Home | Queens | -25.0 | W by 25 | 0.0 |
| 12/03 | Away | Texas | +3.0 | W by 19 | +22.0 |
| 12/06 | Neutral | Dayton | -4.5 | W by 13 | +8.5 |
| 12/09 | Home | Maryland ES | -36.5 | W by 24 | -12.5 |
| 12/20 | Home | Maryland | -16.5 | W by 8 | -8.5 |
| 12/22 | Home | American | -27.5 | W by 44 | +16.5 |
| 12/31 | Away | Virginia Tech | -6.0 | L by 10 | -16.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | NC State | +4.0 | W by 15 | +19.0 |
| 01/07 | Home | California | -14.0 | W by 24 | +10.0 |
| 01/10 | Home | Stanford | -12.5 | W by 15 | +2.5 |
| 01/13 | Away | Louisville | +4.5 | W by 9 | +13.5 |
| 01/17 | Away | SMU | -2.0 | W by 4 | +2.0 |
| 01/24 | Home | North Carolina | -6.5 | L by 5 | -11.5 |
| 01/27 | Away | Notre Dame | -9.5 | W by 3 | -6.5 |
| 01/31 | Away | Boston College | -12.5 | W by 7 | -5.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Pittsburgh | -12.5 | W by 20 | +7.5 |
| 02/07 | Home | Syracuse | -14.0 | W by 13 | -1.0 |
| 02/10 | Away | Florida St | -8.0 | W by 3 | -5.0 |
| 02/14 | Neutral | Ohio St | -5.0 | W by 4 | -1.0 |
| 02/18 | Away | Georgia Tech | -13.0 | W by 26 | +13.0 |
| 02/21 | Home | Miami | -7.5 | W by 3 | -4.5 |
| 02/24 | Home | NC State | -6.5 | W by 29 | +22.5 |
| 02/28 | Away | Duke | +9.5 | L by 26 | -16.5 |
| 03/03 | Home | Wake Forest | -14.5 | W by 5 | -9.5 |
| 03/07 | Home | Virginia Tech | -11.5 | W by 4 | -7.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | NC State | -6.5 | W by 7 | +0.5 |
| 03/13 | Neutral | Miami | -3.5 | W by 22 | +18.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Duke | +6.5 | L by 4 | +2.5 |
| 03/20 | Neutral | Wright St | -17.5 | W by 9 | -8.5 |
| 03/22 | Neutral | Tennessee | +1.5 | L by 7 | -5.5 |
Louisville Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03 | Home | S Carolina St | -36.5 | W by 59 | +22.5 |
| 11/06 | Home | Jackson St | -38.5 | W by 36 | -2.5 |
| 11/11 | Home | Kentucky | -6.0 | W by 8 | +2.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | Ohio | -31.0 | W by 25 | -6.0 |
| 11/21 | Neutral | Cincinnati | -8.5 | W by 10 | +1.5 |
| 11/24 | Home | E Michigan | -33.5 | W by 41 | +7.5 |
| 11/26 | Home | NJIT | -43.5 | W by 57 | +13.5 |
| 12/03 | Away | Arkansas | -2.0 | L by 9 | -11.0 |
| 12/06 | Neutral | Indiana | -4.0 | W by 9 | +5.0 |
| 12/13 | Home | Memphis | -16.5 | W by 26 | +9.5 |
| 12/16 | Away | Tennessee | +4.5 | L by 21 | -16.5 |
| 12/20 | Home | Montana | -30.5 | W by 40 | +9.5 |
| 12/30 | Away | California | -7.5 | W by 20 | +12.5 |
| 01/02 | Away | Stanford | -7.0 | L by 4 | -11.0 |
| 01/06 | Home | Duke | (Pick) | L by 11 | -11.0 |
| 01/10 | Home | Boston College | -21.0 | W by 13 | -8.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | Virginia | -4.5 | L by 9 | -13.5 |
| 01/17 | Away | Pittsburgh | -7.0 | W by 41 | +34.0 |
| 01/24 | Home | Virginia Tech | -13.5 | W by 14 | +0.5 |
| 01/26 | Away | Duke | +8.5 | L by 31 | -22.5 |
| 01/31 | Home | SMU | -9.5 | W by 14 | +4.5 |
| 02/04 | Home | Notre Dame | -18.0 | W by 11 | -7.0 |
| 02/07 | Away | Wake Forest | -9.5 | W by 8 | -1.5 |
| 02/09 | Home | NC State | -7.5 | W by 41 | +33.5 |
| 02/14 | Neutral | Baylor | -7.0 | W by 11 | +4.0 |
| 02/17 | Away | SMU | -4.0 | L by 10 | -14.0 |
| 02/21 | Home | Georgia Tech | -23.0 | W by 17 | -6.0 |
| 02/23 | Away | North Carolina | -3.5 | L by 3 | -6.5 |
| 02/28 | Away | Clemson | -2.5 | L by 5 | -7.5 |
| 03/03 | Home | Syracuse | -14.5 | W by 15 | +0.5 |
| 03/07 | Away | Miami | +1.5 | W by 3 | +4.5 |
| 03/11 | Neutral | SMU | -6.5 | W by 4 | -2.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | Miami | -1.5 | L by 5 | -6.5 |
| 03/19 | Neutral | S Florida | -2.5 | W by 4 | +1.5 |
| 03/21 | Neutral | Michigan St | +5.5 | L by 8 | -2.5 |
| LOU -15.0 | Open | -15.0 | High | -16.5 |
| Last | -15.5 | Low | -14.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2019-2020 NCAA Basketball season there have been 1228 games where the closing line favored the home team by 14 to 16 points. In these games:
- The team like Louisville won the game 1123 times (91.4%).
- The team like Virginia won the game 105 times (8.6%).
- The team like Virginia did better against the spread, going 665-536-27 (55.4% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.2 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2021-2022 NCAA Basketball season there have been 3913 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by the same as the opening line.
In these games, the team like Louisville did better against the spread, going 1924-1920-69 (50.1% ATS).
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -15.0 | -14.5 | -- |
| Open | -14.5 | -14.5 | -- |
| History | |||
| 01/18 11:34 AM | -- | -14.5 | -- |
| 01/18 11:24 AM | -- | -15.5 | -- |
| 01/18 11:24 AM | -15.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/18 10:30 AM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 01/18 10:24 AM | -- | -16.5 | -- |
| 01/18 09:48 AM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/18 08:50 AM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 01/18 08:34 AM | -- | -16.5 | -- |
| 01/18 08:28 AM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/18 02:32 AM | -15.5 | -- | -- |
| 01/17 11:35 PM | -- | -15.5 | -- |
| 01/17 10:05 PM | -- | -16.5 | -- |
| 01/17 08:24 PM | -- | -14.5 | -- |
| 01/17 08:16 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
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