NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA LOU
Points 65.0 72.0
Total Points   137.0
Points From 2-Pointers 29.0 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 26.5 25.2
Points From Free Throws 9.4 13.5
Shooting UVA LOU
Field Goals Made 23.3 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 55.3
Field Goal % 43.5% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 30.4 30.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 55.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 25.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 9.4 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.5 17.9
Free Throw % 75.8% 75.3%
Ball Control UVA LOU
Rebounds 29.0 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.0 9.5
Turnovers 10.0 8.5
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.7
Steals 4.9 5.2
Fouls 15.3 12.0

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA LOU
Total Possessions 65.1
Effective Scoring Chances 61.1 66.1
% of Possessions with UVA LOU
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 39.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.2% 33.4%
Player Fouled 18.4% 23.4%
Turnover 15.4% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA LOU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 18.9% 29.3%