NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA SF
Points 60.2 59.9
Total Points   120.1
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 31.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 20.9
Points From Free Throws 10.8 7.8
Shooting UVA SF
Field Goals Made 21.6 22.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 55.4
Field Goal % 40.2% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 42.4% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 28.8%
Free Throws Made 10.8 7.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 10.5
Free Throw % 62.1% 74.2%
Ball Control UVA SF
Rebounds 31.9 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 9.1
Turnovers 8.1 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.6
Steals 5.8 5.5
Fouls 10.9 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Francisco

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA SF
Total Possessions 64.7
Effective Scoring Chances 63.7 62.2
% of Possessions with UVA SF
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 32.3%
Player Fouled 21.5% 16.8%
Turnover 12.5% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA SF
Shot Blocked 6.7% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 26.8%