NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA ND
Points 60.4 54.3
Total Points   114.7
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 23.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 21.7
Points From Free Throws 8.1 9.3
Shooting UVA ND
Field Goals Made 23.2 18.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 52.7
Field Goal % 40.9% 35.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 11.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 28.3
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 41.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 29.6%
Free Throws Made 8.1 9.3
Free Throws Attempted 13.1 12.6
Free Throw % 62.1% 73.7%
Ball Control UVA ND
Rebounds 33.9 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 9.2
Turnovers 6.3 11.8
Blocked Shots 6.1 2.4
Steals 6.4 4.1
Fouls 11.1 11.0

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA ND
Total Possessions 62.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.6 60.0
% of Possessions with UVA ND
2 Point Attempt 53.8% 38.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 32.9%
Player Fouled 17.5% 17.7%
Turnover 10.2% 18.8%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 10.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA ND
Shot Blocked 4.7% 10.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 26.6%