NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA PITT
Points 59.2 63.3
Total Points   122.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.2 27.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 25.8
Points From Free Throws 8.4 9.9
Shooting UVA PITT
Field Goals Made 22.5 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 58.3
Field Goal % 40.1% 38.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 30.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 27.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 8.4 9.9
Free Throws Attempted 13.6 13.6
Free Throw % 62.1% 73.0%
Ball Control UVA PITT
Rebounds 33.9 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 10.6
Turnovers 7.2 7.9
Blocked Shots 4.7 4.7
Steals 4.6 4.5
Fouls 11.9 11.3

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA PITT
Total Possessions 63.3
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 66.1
% of Possessions with UVA PITT
2 Point Attempt 51.1% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 36.1%
Player Fouled 17.8% 18.8%
Turnover 11.4% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA PITT
Shot Blocked 8.2% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.1% 28.4%