NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCU GSU
Points 76.0 80.7
Total Points   156.7
Points From 2-Pointers 42.1 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 28.4
Points From Free Throws 15.4 13.7
Shooting CCU GSU
Field Goals Made 27.2 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.5 67.0
Field Goal % 44.3% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 21.0 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 29.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 15.4 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 18.3
Free Throw % 69.4% 75.0%
Ball Control CCU GSU
Rebounds 41.3 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 30.4 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 10.3
Turnovers 10.1 6.7
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.2
Steals 4.1 6.0
Fouls 13.5 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Coastal Car

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCU GSU
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 75.0 77.8
% of Possessions with CCU GSU
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 34.4%
Player Fouled 20.5% 18.1%
Turnover 13.7% 9.1%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCU GSU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 25.2%