NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCU TROY
Points 71.2 82.5
Total Points   153.7
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 31.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 32.3
Points From Free Throws 15.3 18.6
Shooting CCU TROY
Field Goals Made 24.9 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 62.9
Field Goal % 45.3% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 10.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.9 31.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 15.3 18.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 25.4
Free Throw % 69.4% 73.4%
Ball Control CCU TROY
Rebounds 36.4 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 13.0
Turnovers 15.6 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.6
Steals 5.9 12.0
Fouls 15.5 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCU TROY
Total Possessions 75.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 78.7
% of Possessions with CCU TROY
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 35.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.8% 35.3%
Player Fouled 21.7% 20.6%
Turnover 20.7% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 16.0% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCU TROY
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 32.3%