NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU VALP
Points 75.3 76.1
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 43.3 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 25.9
Points From Free Throws 15.9 16.0
Shooting CMU VALP
Field Goals Made 27.0 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 57.7
Field Goal % 47.2% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 52.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 25.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 15.9 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 21.0
Free Throw % 74.1% 76.4%
Ball Control CMU VALP
Rebounds 35.4 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 9.4
Turnovers 10.6 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.1
Steals 5.9 5.1
Fouls 15.7 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Central Mich

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU VALP
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 70.7
% of Possessions with CMU VALP
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 30.7%
Player Fouled 22.1% 22.1%
Turnover 14.9% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU VALP
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 27.1%