NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU OHIO
Points 65.2 73.4
Total Points   138.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 27.8
Points From Free Throws 12.1 14.6
Shooting CMU OHIO
Field Goals Made 23.4 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 61.6
Field Goal % 40.1% 40.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 47.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 29.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 12.1 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 19.7
Free Throw % 67.1% 74.1%
Ball Control CMU OHIO
Rebounds 39.6 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 11.3
Turnovers 11.6 8.0
Blocked Shots 4.1 4.0
Steals 4.2 5.7
Fouls 14.3 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Central Mich

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU OHIO
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 73.2
% of Possessions with CMU OHIO
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 35.0%
Player Fouled 19.4% 20.5%
Turnover 16.6% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU OHIO
Shot Blocked 6.7% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 28.8%