NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU BUFF
Points 70.9 64.7
Total Points   135.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 21.3
Points From Free Throws 11.2 11.0
Shooting CMU BUFF
Field Goals Made 26.5 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 64.3 61.8
Field Goal % 41.3% 37.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 42.7 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 27.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 26.0%
Free Throws Made 11.2 11.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 15.3
Free Throw % 67.1% 71.6%
Ball Control CMU BUFF
Rebounds 41.9 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 29.3 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 11.3
Turnovers 9.4 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.8
Steals 5.7 5.0
Fouls 11.8 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Central Mich

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU BUFF
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 74.2 71.4
% of Possessions with CMU BUFF
2 Point Attempt 50.0% 41.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 32.6%
Player Fouled 17.7% 16.7%
Turnover 13.2% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU BUFF
Shot Blocked 7.9% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 31.3% 27.8%