NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU VALP
Points 67.4 66.9
Total Points   134.3
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 17.9 23.7
Points From Free Throws 10.7 10.4
Shooting CMU VALP
Field Goals Made 25.3 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 63.2
Field Goal % 42.4% 38.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 43.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 10.7 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 14.7
Free Throw % 67.1% 70.2%
Ball Control CMU VALP
Rebounds 40.4 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 11.7
Turnovers 10.7 8.6
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.8
Steals 4.9 5.0
Fouls 12.5 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Central Mich

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU VALP
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 72.5
% of Possessions with CMU VALP
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 31.4%
Player Fouled 19.0% 18.0%
Turnover 15.4% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU VALP
Shot Blocked 6.0% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 28.3%