NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU TLSA
Points 65.7 69.6
Total Points   135.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 31.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 20.9
Points From Free Throws 12.5 16.9
Shooting CMU TLSA
Field Goals Made 23.4 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 56.7
Field Goal % 39.3% 40.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.9% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 28.1%
Free Throws Made 12.5 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 23.0
Free Throw % 67.1% 73.6%
Ball Control CMU TLSA
Rebounds 38.8 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 9.3
Turnovers 11.4 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.1
Steals 5.3 6.4
Fouls 15.7 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Central Mich

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU TLSA
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 70.8
% of Possessions with CMU TLSA
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 30.1%
Player Fouled 20.0% 21.9%
Turnover 15.8% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU TLSA
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 24.8%