NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU GMU
Points 62.8 72.7
Total Points   135.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.6 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 17.7 21.0
Points From Free Throws 11.5 16.3
Shooting CMU GMU
Field Goals Made 22.7 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 50.2
Field Goal % 38.8% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 30.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 27.1% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 11.5 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 23.1
Free Throw % 74.1% 70.6%
Ball Control CMU GMU
Rebounds 31.6 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 8.6
Turnovers 11.0 12.9
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.7
Steals 6.6 6.0
Fouls 17.2 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Central Mich

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU GMU
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 64.6
% of Possessions with CMU GMU
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 38.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 25.0%
Player Fouled 20.6% 25.0%
Turnover 16.0% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU GMU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 29.3%