NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU GMU
Points 64.6 77.6
Total Points   142.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 41.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 17.9
Points From Free Throws 9.6 18.3
Shooting CMU GMU
Field Goals Made 24.3 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 53.2
Field Goal % 43.2% 50.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 59.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 9.6 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.1 25.4
Free Throw % 67.7% 71.9%
Ball Control CMU GMU
Rebounds 27.5 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 19.3 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 11.2
Turnovers 9.9 9.2
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.1
Steals 5.3 5.2
Fouls 17.0 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: C Michigan

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU GMU
Total Possessions 66.6
Effective Scoring Chances 64.9 68.6
% of Possessions with CMU GMU
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 22.9%
Player Fouled 20.0% 25.5%
Turnover 14.8% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU GMU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 36.7%