NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU TOL
Points 71.8 77.1
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 43.4 41.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.9 19.5
Points From Free Throws 9.5 16.4
Shooting CMU TOL
Field Goals Made 28.0 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 61.4
Field Goal % 46.7% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 41.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 9.5 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.1 22.0
Free Throw % 67.1% 74.2%
Ball Control CMU TOL
Rebounds 35.3 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 11.3
Turnovers 11.5 8.4
Blocked Shots 5.0 2.2
Steals 4.8 6.0
Fouls 15.3 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Central Mich

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU TOL
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 74.1
% of Possessions with CMU TOL
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 23.1%
Player Fouled 17.7% 21.5%
Turnover 16.2% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU TOL
Shot Blocked 3.6% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 30.5%