NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU TOL
Points 78.9 78.5
Total Points   157.5
Points From 2-Pointers 47.5 42.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 19.5
Points From Free Throws 11.9 16.5
Shooting CMU TOL
Field Goals Made 30.3 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 58.9
Field Goal % 48.7% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 23.8 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 40.8 40.3
2 Point Shooting % 58.2% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.3 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 11.9 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 22.0
Free Throw % 72.3% 75.1%
Ball Control CMU TOL
Rebounds 34.6 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 10.1
Turnovers 9.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.9
Steals 5.9 4.2
Fouls 15.9 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU TOL
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 72.3
% of Possessions with CMU TOL
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 22.6%
Player Fouled 19.2% 22.3%
Turnover 13.4% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU TOL
Shot Blocked 5.1% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 30.7% 29.5%